Win rate calculator

See your win rate, the win rate you need to break even, and what each trade is worth on average. Free, instant and no sign-up.

Your trades

Average win and loss (optional)

Use any currency, or R multiples. Enter the loss as a positive or negative number; both work.

Win rate

55%

100 trades. 15 points above your breakeven win rate.

Breakeven win rate
40%
Expectancy per trade
+37.5
Average win / loss
1.50
Profit factor
1.83

Calculated in your browser; nothing you type is sent. A record of past trades, not a forecast.

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The win rate formula

Win rate only tells you how often you win. On its own it says nothing about whether you make money. That takes your average win and loss, which give you the breakeven win rate and your expectancy.

win rate = wins ÷ (wins + losses)
breakeven win rate = average loss ÷ (average win + average loss)
expectancy = (win rate × average win) - (loss rate × average loss)

Worked example

You took 100 trades: 55 wins and 45 losses, with an average win of $150 and an average loss of $100.

  1. 1

    Win rate

    55 ÷ (55 + 45) = 55%.
  2. 2

    Breakeven win rate

    $100 ÷ ($150 + $100) = 40%. These averages make money at any win rate above 40%, so you are 15 points clear.
  3. 3

    Expectancy

    (55% × $150) - (45% × $100) = $82.50 - $45 = +$37.50 per trade, or about 0.38 times your average loss.

Frequently asked questions

It depends on the size of your wins. A 35% win rate makes money if your average win is twice your average loss, and a 70% win rate loses money if your average loss is three times your average win. Compare your win rate with your breakeven win rate, not with a fixed target.

Divide your average loss by the sum of your average win and average loss. With an average win of 150 and an average loss of 100, that is 100 / 250 = 40%. Below that win rate these averages lose money; above it they make money.

Expectancy is what a trade makes on average, given how often you win and how much wins and losses are worth. It is (win rate x average win) - (loss rate x average loss). A positive figure means the record so far made money; it does not promise the next trade will.

This calculator leaves them out, so the win rate is wins divided by wins plus losses. Count a trade as a win or a loss only if it made or lost a meaningful amount after costs, and use the same rule every time so your figures stay comparable.

More than most people expect. At around 50%, a sample of 100 trades can still be about 10 percentage points away from your true win rate by chance alone. Use a larger sample of similar trades before you change a strategy because of the number.

Yes, use net figures if you can. Commission, spread and swaps raise your breakeven win rate, and a strategy with a thin edge can look profitable on gross numbers alone.